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Final week, I developed an algorithm to foretell the primary 4 drivers to be knocked out of the playoffs. Since we have now to attend two races earlier than evaluating how properly that algorithm labored, let’s strive one thing else.
Let’s strive predicting the contenders in in the present day’s Cup playoff race a Kansas Speedway (3 p.m. ET on USA Community).
Predicting Kansas with just one Kansas race
Selecting drivers based mostly on solely Could’s Kansas race gained’t give us very strong outcomes. So we’ll add a few comparable tracks which have already hosted a race this 12 months.
The observe most just like Kansas is Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Each are 1.5-mile, D-shaped tracks with low tire put on. Las Vegas has progressive banking between 18 and 20 levels whereas Kansas’s banking ranges from 17 to twenty levels.
The opposite observe is Michigan Worldwide Speedway. Kansas and Michigan share the identical form and stage of tire put on. They’re totally different lengths, however solely by a half-mile. The nook banking at Michigan is eighteen levels, just like Kansas’s turns.
That makes our pattern information the May Kansas race, Michigan and Las Vegas.
I weighted averages to make the Kansas information equal to the opposite two tracks mixed. Principally, I added Kansas twice and Michigan and Las Vegas as soon as and divided by 4. Once I confer with common ending place or common operating place for the dataset, I imply the weighted averages.
I developed the algorithm utilizing the identical methods I described before, however valued profitable a bit extra right here. I used the driving force’s common end during the last 5 races to seize momentum. For reference, all drivers however one have common finishes of tenth or worse of their final 5 races.
The highest three contenders
Nobody shall be stunned to see Kyle Larson on the high of my listing. He’s on the high of a lot of lists. The graph of weighted ending positions under reveals his 3.25 common ending place. That’s half the typical ending place of the second-place driver, Martin Truex Jr.
Larson enters Kansas assured, however practical in regards to the stage of competitors he expects from Toyota.
“I’m certain they’ll get the pole,” Larson mentioned. “I’m certain they’ll be within the hunt all race lengthy. It’ll be robust, however they are often beat, for certain.”
Larson is one in every of solely three drivers to have top-10 finishes in any respect three tracks. The opposite two are Truex and Alex Bowman. Though Larson didn’t win any of the three races, he put up a fierce battle with eventual winner Kurt Busch at Kansas in Could. He additionally led 7.6% of all laps run at these three tracks this 12 months.
Drivers two and three rating properly behind Larson, however very shut to one another.
Though Christopher Bell had a DNF at Michigan, he nonetheless had the fifth greatest common operating place for that race. Bell led 13.5% of laps on the three tracks in 2022, the second highest complete of any driver. And he’s one in every of solely two drivers to steer laps in any respect three tracks this 12 months.
Denny Hamlin has the second-best common ending place in his final 5 races at 10.8. That boosted him to 3rd place within the Kansas prediction listing. Regardless of not ending the Las Vegas race as a consequence of a drivetrain downside, Hamlin led 9.3% of all potential laps on the three goal races.
The final of the highest six Kansas predictions
The ultimate three drivers are tightly grouped in rating, however under Bell and Hamlin.
Ross Chastain takes fourth place. He’s led probably the most laps of any driver (15.7%) at our three-track pattern. He additionally led every one of many three races we’re contemplating. Bell is the one different driver who’s accomplished that.
“It’s fairly wild that our wins haven’t come on 1.5-mile tracks,” Chastain mentioned, “as a result of I really feel like these have been our strongest races.”
Strongest or not, Chastain’s place on the listing isn’t greater as a result of his common ending place for the final 5 races is 23.2. That’s the worst of any of the top-nine drivers the algorithm recognized.
Las Vegas winner Alex Bowman is available in fifth, with a 7.0 common end place. Though he had a collection of P30+ finishes in the midst of the season, his common ending within the final 5 races is 13.4. He’s additionally one of many three drivers to have top-10 finishes in any respect three races within the pattern.
No. 6 on my listing is Kevin Harvick. Apart from profitable Michigan, he doesn’t have a single standout stat like the opposite drivers. Simply strong numbers in each metric. If he can channel last week’s frustration into a robust run, he simply may solidify his spot within the subsequent spherical of the playoffs this Sunday (3 p.m. ET on USA Community.)
Different drivers
With the second-highest common end on the pattern tracks, how did Truex rank solely seventh? He completed within the high 10 in all three races, however by no means cracked the highest 5. He solely led one lap between all three tracks. However for those who’re on the lookout for a driver to run high 10, he’s a strong selection.
Joey Logano is on a scorching streak with the perfect last-five-race common (5.8). However his common ending place at these tracks is 13.0, with zero laps led.
Chase Elliott, who had a disappointing 36th-place finish at Darlington, has a 19.5 common end on the three comparable tracks this 12 months.
Chase Briscoe and Daniel Suárez have common finishes of 25.8 and 32.0 respectively. Whereas Suárez has proven enchancment since his Sonoma win, his common ending place on the final 5 races continues to be solely 18.2.
Kansas predicts tires for the playoffs
Goodyear continues to develop the 18-inch Subsequent Gen tire. Simply as groups have realized loads in regards to the automotive through the season, so have the tire engineers.
They’ve modified the development and the tread compounds for Kansas relative to the Could race. The proper-side tire code was run at Pocono and Michigan, however the left-side is new.
Texas and Las Vegas are scheduled to make use of the identical tire codes. So along with factors, groups will scramble to collect tire information within the hopes they’ll have the ability to use it to their benefit within the fourth and seventh playoff races.
