These are nonetheless pretty tough waters for Democrats. However the nation is at all times altering. The concept these sorts of hot-button points imply immediate loss of life for Democrats dates to the Nineteen Eighties and the conservative ascendancy. Then within the early aughts, when George W. Bush gained reelection partly on the energy of the anti-gay marriage referenda that Karl Rove made certain had been on the ballots of a number of swing states, the present standard knowledge actually took maintain.
However it’s a special nation now. It’s extra racially various. Similar-sex marriage is off the desk as a hot-button problem, and if this Supreme Court docket ever reverses Obergefell, I feel the response of center America can be certainly one of if not outrage then at the least disappointment and confusion. On transgender rights, center America should be getting used to a brand new actuality, however even there the information is considerably encouraging. A Pew survey from February requested respondents whether or not better social acceptance of transgender individuals is mostly good or unhealthy for society, or neither. Just one third mentioned “unhealthy” or “very unhealthy.” In a 2021 Pew poll, 42 % mentioned they know somebody who’s transgender. That was up 5 factors from 2017; it’ll proceed to go up, and with it should come acceptance—familiarity tends to drive individuals away from their fears and prejudices. In 15 years or so, trans rights gained’t be an enormous problem.
Naturally, the appropriate will discover one thing else. Their enterprise mannequin will depend on stoking cultural reactionary outrage. By then, will probably be the truth that white individuals will quickly be a minority, which certainly would possibly result in the mom of all tradition wars. However within the meantime, let’s be aware that progress does occur, and that hot-button cultural points don’t must imply electoral calamity for liberals and Democrats. True, each place isn’t Eau Claire; however there are many Eau Claires on the market.