I’m skeptical of this — at the least over the long run. Historical past tells us that events regulate messaging and have a tendency to search out the very best pathway to a majority, leaving this to be a 50/50 nation on common.
All of those election outcomes had been predicted to a reasonably correct diploma by fundamentals primarily based political science fashions.
So why would the longer term be any completely different in terms of the Senate? Effectively it comes down to 2 fairly easy factors.
First, Democratic energy is extra concentrated than Republican energy by way of geography. You’ll be able to see this within the 2020 outcomes with now-President Joe Biden reaching a transparent majority within the Electoral Faculty and fashionable vote, however solely profitable 25 states. Trump, alternatively, took 30 states in 2016, regardless of shedding the favored vote and profitable with the same variety of electoral votes.
And since every state has an equal variety of senators, a nation that votes 50/50 within the fashionable vote on the presidential stage may have extra Republican senators over the long-term as a result of that interprets into profitable extra states.
However I am unsure I used to be appropriate eight years in the past. The factor I did not consider is that this hasn’t been a 50/50 nation within the presidential fashionable vote over the past three many years.
Over the long run this has come out to being near a wash in states gained. Since 1992, Democrats have gained 25.5 states within the median election. Republicans have gained 24.5. On common, Democrats have gained 25 states to Republicans 25.
In the event you play out these Senate elections over and over, you’d most likely find yourself with fairly equal energy within the Senate between Democrats and Republicans assuming straight ticket voting between Senate and presidential voting.
To be clear, this doesn’t suggest that Republicans will not find yourself profitable the Senate extra instances than Democrats. If voters are susceptible to balancing energy (which they normally do), Republicans will do nicely in midterms and that would carry over to extra wins general as a result of solely one-third of the Senate is up for election each presidential cycle. Republicans might simply take again management of the Senate in 2022, which I believe is the more than likely end result.
It is that the default is not as pro-Republican as one would possibly assume.
I will finish by saying we do not know if the present diploma of straight ticket voting will keep the identical, choose up and even shrink in years to return. We do not know what the coalitions will appear to be. Identical to Trump got here on the scene and exacerbated the tutorial divide, one other candidate might change the electoral calculus sooner or later. Events and their messages aren’t stagnant.
The underside line is nobody is aware of the place voter opinion and election outcomes will go from right here.